YX 4518 · MIA → XNA

took off 12:23 AM ET · landed 1:46 AM CT (scheduled 9:33 PM ET → 11:35 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to XNA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
✓

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

XNA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4518 · MIA → XNA

Odds over time

How late did it get to XNA?