Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4541 LANDED 12:54 AM CT, ~13 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Today

YX 4541 · DCA → ORD

took off 12:17 AM ET · landed 12:54 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 18h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.35 in

ORD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4541 · DCA → ORD

Odds over time