Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4546
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
YX 4546 · ACK → LGA
departs 2:30 PM ET · arrives 3:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 27%
Fri 10/9 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave ACK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
ACK (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.13 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.