Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4546
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 4546 · ACK → LGA
departs 2:32 PM ET · arrives 4:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave ACK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
ACK is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
ACK (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.15 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.