Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4546
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
YX 4546 · ACK → LGA
departs 2:31 PM ET · arrives 3:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 24%
Fri 10/9 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±4 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave ACK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ACK (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.06 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.