Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4546
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
YX 4546 · LGA → ACK
departs 12:37 PM ET · arrives 2:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 10%
Fri 10/9 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at ACK more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ACK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at ACK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to ACK?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
12pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at ACK
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
ACK (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.