Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4546
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
YX 4546 · LGA → ACK
departs 12:38 PM ET · arrives 2:01 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 11%
Fri 10/9 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at ACK more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ACK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at ACK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ACK?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
12pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.05 in
ACK (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.