Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4546
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 4546 · LGA → ACK
departs 12:38 PM ET · arrives 2:01 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at ACK more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ACK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at ACK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ACK?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ACK that day
↑
12pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
ACK (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.