Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4553
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
YX 4553 · ACK → DCA
departs 5:11 PM ET · arrives 7:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 41%
Mon 10/5 22%
Fri 10/9 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave ACK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ACK (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.13 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.