Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4553
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 4553 · ACK → DCA
departs 5:10 PM ET · arrives 6:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Sun 10/4 43%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave ACK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
5pm departures from ACK are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ACK (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.15 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.