Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4555
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 4555 · DCA → HYA
departs 3:39 PM ET · arrives 5:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 17%
Thu 10/8 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at HYA more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HYA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at HYA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HYA?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.05 in
HYA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.27 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.