Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4555
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4555 · DCA → HYA
departs 3:59 PM ET · arrives 5:39 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 17%
Thu 10/8 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at HYA more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HYA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at HYA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to HYA?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.40 in
HYA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.