Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4580 LANDED 8:38 AM ET, ~20 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

YX 4580 · CHS → LGA

took off 7:14 AM ET · landed 8:38 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 0.8 in of rain forecast at CHS that day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

CHS (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.21 in

LGA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4580 · CHS → LGA

Odds over time