Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4672
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 4672 · DCA → SDF
departs 5:59 PM ET · arrives 7:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,033 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 967 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.