Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4672
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4672 · DCA → SDF
departs 7:45 PM ET · arrives 9:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 40%
Sat 10/3 13%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 15%
Thu 10/8 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day
↑
7pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.34 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.