YX 4784 · DCA → ILM

took off 8:53 AM ET · landed 9:47 AM ET (scheduled 8:25 AM ET → 10:12 AM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ILM?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ILM that day

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ 8am departures from DCA are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Arrivals into ILM at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.35 in

ILM (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip1.00 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4784 · DCA → ILM

Odds over time

How late did it get to ILM?