Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1119 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1119 · SAT → CLT

departs 6:01 AM CT · arrives 10:00 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±2 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SAT that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from SAT are usually not late

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.16 in

CLT (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.69 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1119 · SAT → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?