Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1501 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1501 · MIA → BNA

departs 3:29 PM ET · arrives 4:52 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BNA that day

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1501 · MIA → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?