Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1606 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1606 · MIA → DCA

departs 11:59 AM ET · arrives 2:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ MIA is prone to delays

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ DCA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.40 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1606 · MIA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?