Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1624 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1624 · DFW → DCA

departs 9:57 AM CT · arrives 1:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 9am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.08 in

DCA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.36 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1624 · DFW → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?