Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1891 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1891 · CLT → GRR

departs 2:56 PM ET · arrives 4:50 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GRR?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ 2pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ GRR usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.81 in

GRR (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1891 · CLT → GRR

Odds over time

How late will it get to GRR?