Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2051 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2051 · DCA → LAS

departs 8:00 AM ET · arrives 10:10 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DCA that day

↑ 8am departures from DCA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.33 in

LAS (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2051 · DCA → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?