Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2151 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2151 · CLT → MSP

departs 3:26 PM ET · arrives 5:07 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 8:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±4 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ 3pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.34 in

MSP (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2151 · CLT → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?