Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2392 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2392 · CLT → MEM

departs 10:56 PM ET · arrives 11:45 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MEM?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ 10pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.39 in

MEM (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2392 · CLT → MEM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEM?