Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2496 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2496 · CLT → SAT

departs 2:58 PM ET · arrives 4:57 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ SAT is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.39 in

SAT (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2496 · CLT → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?