Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2831 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2831 · TPA → MIA

departs 1:54 PM ET · arrives 3:03 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

MIA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2831 · TPA → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?