Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2852 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2852 · DCA → TPA

departs 10:15 AM ET · arrives 12:40 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DCA that day

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↑ 10am departures from DCA are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into TPA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.25 in

TPA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling7,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2852 · DCA → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?