Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2873 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2873 · TYS → DFW

departs 1:54 PM ET · arrives 3:24 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±2 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at TYS that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,033 ft forecast at DFW that day

↓ TYS usually runs smoothly

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TYS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.2 mi Precip0.66 in

DFW (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling867 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2873 · TYS → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?