Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2915 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2915 · DCA → MIA

departs 1:44 PM ET · arrives 4:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 8:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ 1pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.46 in

MIA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2915 · DCA → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?