Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2989 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2989 · CLT → CVG

departs 8:29 PM ET · arrives 9:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CVG?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.34 in

CVG (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2989 · CLT → CVG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CVG?