Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3028 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4 Today

AA 3028 · DCA → STL

departs 8:00 PM ET · arrives 9:21 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±1 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.23 in

STL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3028 · DCA → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?