Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3028 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5 Tomorrow

AA 3028 · DCA → STL

departs 8:00 PM ET · arrives 9:21 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 AM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at DCA that day

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3028 · DCA → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?