Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3131 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 3131 · MIA → CLT

departs 7:10 PM ET · arrives 9:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±2 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.81 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3131 · MIA → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?