Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 488 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 488 · CLT → MIA

departs 6:00 PM ET · arrives 8:21 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±4 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ 6pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.81 in

MIA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 488 · CLT → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?