Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 1414 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

B6 1414 · DCA → MVY

departs 12:56 PM ET · arrives 2:19 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at MVY more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±1 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MVY?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ B6's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MVY

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.43 in

MVY (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

B6 1414 · DCA → MVY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MVY?