Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1015
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
F9 1015 · SJU → PHL
departs 6:44 AM AT · arrives 10:48 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Sat 10/3 25%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 19%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↑
PHL is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.