Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1112 LANDED 9:03 AM ET, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

F9 1112 · MCO → RDU

took off 7:43 AM ET · landed 9:03 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at RDU that day

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.16 in

RDU (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1112 · MCO → RDU

Odds over time