F9 1112 · MCO → RDU

departs 7:35 AM ET · arrives 9:38 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at RDU that day

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.27 in

RDU (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1112 · MCO → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?