Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1537
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
F9 1537 · BWI → TPA
departs 11:30 AM ET · arrives 1:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sat 10/3 19%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BWI that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
TPA is prone to delays
↓
11am departures from BWI are usually not late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.42 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.