Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1537
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 1537 · BWI → TPA
departs 9:49 AM ET · arrives 12:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Fri 10/2 26%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
TPA is prone to delays
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
9am departures from BWI are usually not late
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.30 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.