Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1537
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Tomorrow
F9 1537 · BWI → TPA
departs 11:30 AM ET · arrives 1:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Fri 10/2
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.6d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
TPA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.26 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.