Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1537
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
F9 1537 · BWI → TPA
departs 11:30 AM ET · arrives 1:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 26%
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
BWI is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.41 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.