Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2912
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
F9 2912 · ATL → TPA
departs 5:14 PM ET · arrives 6:52 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 58%
Sat 10/3 44%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 34%
Tue 10/6 21%
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
23%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
5pm departures from ATL are often late
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.35 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.