Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3539
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3539 · GPT → DFW
departs 11:27 AM CT · arrives 1:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 45%
Sat 10/3 44%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave GPT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.4 in of rain forecast at GPT that day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
11am departures from GPT are usually not late
Weather at each end
GPT (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 3.64 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.