Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3627
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
MQ 3627 · DCA → LIT
departs 5:09 PM ET · arrives 7:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 16%
Thu 10/8 19%
Fri 10/9 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at LIT more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±4 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at LIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LIT?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at DCA that day
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↓
Other factors
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.06 in
LIT (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.