Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3795
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3795 · DFW → SGF
departs 1:40 PM CT · arrives 3:07 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Sat 10/3 35%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 10%
Thu 10/8 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SGF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SGF?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SGF usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.05 in
SGF (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.