Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3820
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3820 · MIA → TLH
departs 7:30 AM ET · arrives 9:02 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at TLH more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TLH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at TLH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TLH?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TLH that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Arrivals into TLH at that hour are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TLH (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.39 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.