Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3820
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
MQ 3820 · MIA → TLH
departs 6:40 AM ET · arrives 8:12 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at TLH more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TLH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at TLH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TLH?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 1.7 in of rain forecast at TLH that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
TLH (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.68 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.