Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3820
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3820 · TLH → MIA
departs 9:32 AM ET · arrives 11:02 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave TLH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TLH that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TLH (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.39 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.