Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3820
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
MQ 3820 · TLH → MIA
departs 8:43 AM ET · arrives 10:10 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave TLH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 1.7 in of rain forecast at TLH that day
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
8am departures from TLH are usually not late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TLH (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.68 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.